Judge Richard Posner and Professors Lee Epstein and William Landes have analyzed a simple—yet statistically significant—method of identifying the likely winner of a Supreme Court case based on the number of questions the lawyers receive during oral argument. In a nutshell, the party that receives the most questions from the Justices during oral argument is more likely to lose. See Lee Epstein, William M. Landes, & Richard A. Posner, Inferring the Winning Party in the Supreme Court from the Pattern of Questioning at Oral Argument, 39 J. Legal Stud. 433 (2010); Johnson, Timothy R., Ryan Black, Jerry Goldman, and Sarah Treul, Inquiring Minds Want to Know: Do Justices Tip their Hands with Questions at Oral Argument in the U.S. Supreme Court?, 29 Wash. Univ. J. of L. & Policy. 241-261 #X (Spring 2009). Below, Professor Edward Lee applies this method to cases from the Supreme Court’s 2014 October Term.
An asterisk (*) indicates close cases that could resolve either way.
Blue boxes indicate a correct prediction, gray an incorrect prediction.
Percentage Correct: 63% (42 of 67 cases decided)
Session Beginning October 6, 2014
| Date Argued | Case | Lee Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| 10/6/14 | Heien v. North Carolina | North Carolina* |
| 10/7/14 | Holt v. Hobbs | Holt |
| 10/7/14 | Dart Cherokee Basin v. Owens | Dart Cherokee* |
| 10/8/14 | Integrity Staffing Solutions v. Busk | Integrity Staffing Solutions |
| 10/8/14 | Warger v. Shauers | Shauers |
| 10/14/14 | Kansas v. Nebraska and Colorado | SG (supporting neither party) |
| 10/14/14 | North Carolina Board of Dental Examiners v. FTC | FTC |
| 10/15/14 | Teva Pharmaceuticals v. Sandoz | Teva* |
| 10/15/14 | Jennings v. Stephens | Stephens |
Session Beginning November 3, 2014
| Date Argued | Case | Lee Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| 11/3/14 | Zivotofsky v. Kerry | SG (Respondent)* |
| 11/3/14 | Omnicare, Inc. v. Laborers Dist. Council | Laborers Dist. Council* |
| 11/4/14 | Dep’t of Homeland Security v. MacLean | SG (Petitioner)* |
| 11/4/14 | Jesinoski v. Countrywide Home Loans | Jesinoski |
| 11/5/14 | Yates v. United States | SG (Respondent)* |
| 11/10/14 | T-Mobile South v. City of Roswell | T-Mobile South* |
| 11/10/14 | M&G Polymers USA v. Tackett | Tacket |
| 11/12/14 | Alabama Legislative Black Caucus v. Alabama | Alabama* |
| 11/12/14 | Comptroller of the Maryland Treasury v. Wynne | Wynne* |
Session Beginning December 1, 2014
| Date Argued | Case | Lee Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| 12/1/14 | Perez v. Mortgage Bankers Ass’n | Mortgage Bankers Ass’n |
| 12/1/14 | Elonis v. United States | Elonis* |
| 12/2/14 | B&B Hardware, Inc. v. Hargis Industries, Inc. | B&B Hardware |
| 12/2/14 | Whitfield v. United States | SG (Respondent)* |
| 12/3/14 | Young v. UPS | UPS* |
| 12/3/14 | Hana Financial v. Hana Bank | Hana Bank |
| 12/8/14 | Direct Marketing Association v. Brohl | Direct Marketing Ass’n |
| 12/8/14 | Department of Transportation v. Association of American Railroads | Association of American Railroads |
| 12/9/14 | Gelboim v. Bank of America Corporation | Bank of America |
| 12/9/14 | Alabama Department of Revenue v. CSX Transportation | CSX* |
| 12/10/14 | United States v. Wong | Wong |
| 12/10/14 | United States v. June | June |
Session Beginning January 12, 2015
| Date Argued | Case | Lee Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| 1/12/15 | Reed v. Town of Gilbert | Reed* |
| 1/12/15 | Oneok v. Learjet | Learjet |
| 1/13/15 | Mach Mining v. EEOC | Mach Mining* |
| 1/13/15 | Kellogg Brown & Root v. Carter | Kellogg Brown |
| 1/14/15 | Mellouli v. Lynch | Mellouli* |
| 1/14/15 | Wellness International Network, Limited v. Sharif | Wellness International* |
| 1/20/15 | Armstrong v. Exceptional Child Center | Armstrong* |
| 1/20/15 | Williams-Yulee v. The Florida Bar | Williams-Yulee* |
| 1/21/15 | Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs v. The Inclusive Communities Project | Inclusive Communities Project* |
| 1/21/15 | Rodriguez v. United States | SG (Respondent) |
Session Beginning February 23, 2015
| Date Argued | Case | Lee Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| 2/23/15 | Kerry v. Din | SG (Petitioner)* |
| 2/23/15 | Coleman v. Tollefson | Michigan SG (Respondent)* |
| 2/24/15 | Henderson v. United States | Henderson |
| 2/24/15 | Tibble v. Edison International | Tibble* |
| 2/25/15 | EEOC v. Abercrombie & Fitch Stores, Inc. | SG (Petitioner) |
| 2/25/15 | Baker Botts v. ASARCO | ASARCO |
| 3/2/15 | AZ State Legislature v. AZ Indep. Redistricting | AZ Legislature* |
| 3/2/15 | Ohio v. Clark | Clark* |
| 3/3/15 | Los Angeles v. Patel | Los Angeles |
| 3/3/15 | Davis v. Ayala | Ayala |
| 3/4/15 | King v. Burwell | King* |
Session Beginning March 23, 2015
| Date Argued | Case | Lee Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| 3/23/15 | Walker v. Sons of Confederate Veterans | Sons of Confederate Vets* |
| 3/23/15 | San Francisco v. Sheehan | San Francisco* |
| 3/24/15 | Bank of America v. Caulkett; Bank of America v. Toledo-Cardona (consolidated) | Respondents* |
| 3/25/15 | Michigan v. EPA; UARG v. EPA; National Mining Assn. v. EPA (consolidated) | Petitioners |
| 3/30/15 | Brumfield v. Cain | Cain |
| 3/31/15 | Commil USA v. Cisco Systems | Cisco |
| 3/31/15 | Kimble v. Marvel Enterprises | Marvel |
| 4/1/15 | Harris v. Viegelahn | Viegelahn |
| 4/1/15 | Bullard v. Blue Hills Bank | Blue Hills |
Session Beginning April 20, 2015
| Date Argued | Case | Lee Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| 4/20/15 | Johnson v. United States (reargued) | Johnson (first arg.); SG (Respondent)* (second arg.) |
| 4/21/15 | McFadden v. United States | McFadden |
| 4/22/15 | Horne v. Dept. of Agriculture | Horne* |
| 4/27/15 | Kingsley v. Hendrickson | Hendrickson* |
| 4/28/15 | Obergefell v. Hodges; Tanco v. Haslam; Deboer v. Snyder; Bourke v. Beshear (consolidated) | Petitioners |
| 4/29/15 | Glossip v. Gross | Gross* |
| 4/29/15 | Mata v. Lynch (formerly Mata v. Holder) | Mata* |