Category Archives: Term

Predicting the Winner in Johnson v. US

The Supreme Court heard one oral argument on Monday in Johnson v. United States, which asks whether mere possession of a short-barreled shotgun should be treated as a violent felony under the Armed Career Criminal Act.  This is a very difficult case to predict. As Figure 1 indicates, the total question count is very close: … Continue reading Predicting the Winner in Johnson v. US

Predicting the Winners in Harris v. Viegelahn and Bullard v. Blue Hills Bank

The Supreme Court heard two bankruptcy cases on Wednesday. The first case, Harris v. Viegelahn, asks whether, when a debtor in good faith converts a bankruptcy case to Chapter 7 after confirmation of a Chapter 13 plan, undistributed funds held by the Chapter 13 trustee are refunded to the debtor (as the Third Circuit held … Continue reading Predicting the Winners in Harris v. Viegelahn and Bullard v. Blue Hills Bank

Predicting the Winners in Commil v. Cisco and Kimble v. Marvel

The Supreme Court heard two oral arguments in patent cases on Tuesday.   I’m predicting the winners based on the method of counting up the number of questions. The first case, Commil USA v. Cisco Systems, asks whether the Federal Circuit erred in holding that a defendant’s belief that a patent is invalid is a … Continue reading Predicting the Winners in Commil v. Cisco and Kimble v. Marvel

Predicting the Winner in Brumfield v. Cain

The Supreme Court held only one oral argument on Monday.   I’m predicting the winners based on the method of counting up the number of questions.  After a very successful start of the Term (7 of 9 correct in the first month), my prediction percentage has slipped considerably to 52%,  so you should take everything … Continue reading Predicting the Winner in Brumfield v. Cain

Predicting the Winners in Bank of America Cases

On Tuesday, the Supreme Court heard oral argument in two consolidated cases related to the treatment of underwater mortgages in bankruptcy.  I’m predicting the winners based on the method of counting up the number of questions. Bank of America NA v. Caulkett asks “whether, under Section 506(d) of the Bankruptcy Code, which provides that ‘[t]o the … Continue reading Predicting the Winners in Bank of America Cases

Predicting the Winners in Walker v. Sons of Confederate Veterans; SF v. Sheehan

The Supreme Court heard oral argument two cases on Monday.  I’m predicting the winners based on the method of counting up the number of questions.  Both of today’s cases are difficult to predict based on the question count. The first case is an important First Amendment case, Walker v. Texas Division, Sons of Confederate Veterans, … Continue reading Predicting the Winners in Walker v. Sons of Confederate Veterans; SF v. Sheehan

Are You Talking To Me? The Justices and Their Audience

Last month, in her dissent in Yates v. U.S., Justice Kagan reminded us again of why she has earned a reputation for her readable, engaging, even entertaining opinions. Yates involved a prosecution of a fisherman under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. After a federal agent found that the fisherman had some undersized red grouper in violation of … Continue reading Are You Talking To Me? The Justices and Their Audience

Following the Script: The ACA at the Supreme Court, Round 2

So now that we’ve had (if not yet heard) oral arguments in King v. Burwell, the Affordable Care Act’s second round at the Supreme Court, what have we learned about where the justices stand on this stunningly consequential case? Not all that much, I would say. Court watchers have developed a relatively predictable script for … Continue reading Following the Script: The ACA at the Supreme Court, Round 2

Predicting the Winner in King v. Burwell–Will Obamacare stand?

The Supreme Court heard oral argument in the Obamacare case, King v. Burwell, on Wednesday in 90 minutes of extended oral argument. I’m predicting the winners based on the method of counting the number of questions. After 19 decisions handed down, my predictions have been correct 63% of the time, which means I have fallen off … Continue reading Predicting the Winner in King v. Burwell–Will Obamacare stand?

Predicting the Winners in LA v. Patel and Davis v. Ayala

The Supreme Court heard two oral arguments on Tuesday. I’m predicting the winners based on the method of counting the number of questions. After 18 decisions handed down, my predictions have been correct 66.7% of the time, which means I have fallen off after going 100% correct in the first 6 decisions. The first case, … Continue reading Predicting the Winners in LA v. Patel and Davis v. Ayala