Predicting the Winner in Kingsley v. Hendrickson

On Monday, the Supreme Court heard oral argument in Kingsley v. Hendrickson, which asks whether the requirements of a 42 U.S.C. § 1983 excessive force claim brought by a plaintiff who was a pretrial detainee at the time of the incident are satisfied by a showing that the state actor deliberately used force against the pretrial detainee and the use of force was objectively unreasonable.

This case is difficult to predict because it’s an asymmetrical case involving 3 different positions and 3 advocates, though with different allotments of time.  The Solicitor General (presumably receiving 10 minutes as an amicus) argued in support of affirmance, supporting neither party.  The SG and Petitioners agree that the proper test is objective, but disagree on its application to the case (with the SG arguing that the jury instructions used below  incorporated an objective standard and therefore there is no need for reversal).

As shown in Figure 1 below, the total question count favors an affirmance.  The Petitioners received the most questions–17 more than the Respondents and 11 more than the SG.  Interestingly, the Respondents even received 5 fewer questions than the SG (which presumably had only 10 minutes of argument as amicus compared to the 25 minutes for the Respondents).  Paul Clement (former SG) represented the Respondents and received a noticeable amount of response time uninterrupted by the usual flurry of questions.

Figure 1.

Slide2

The count by Justice also favors affirmance.  Four Justices asked the Respondents the fewest questions of the 3 advocates–indeed asking only 1 question total to the Respondents: Roberts (0), Scalia (1), Kennedy (0), and Alito (0).  By contrast, Justice Ginsburg asked the Petitioner 3 questions, the SG 2 questions, and the Respondents 4 questions.  Justice Breyer asked the Petitioner and Respondents 2 questions each, but the SG 8 questions.   Justice Sotomayor asked the Petitioner 1 question, the SG 2 questions, and the Respondents 7 question.  Finally, Justice Kagan asked the Petitioner 1 question and the Respondents 5 questions, but none to the SG.

Based on these numbers (especially the 5 conservative Justices asking only 1 question to the Respondents) , I will go with either an affirmance or a victory for the Respondents.

The Supreme Court and Firing Squads

Turning to the other big case of the week….

Earlier today, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Glossip v. Gross, a challenge to the three-drug lethal injection protocol Oklahoma uses for its executions. The challengers argue that the procedure violates the ban on “cruel and unusual punishments” found in the Eighth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.

The last time the Supreme Court considered a constitutional challenge to a method of execution was in Baze v. Rees (2008). In a 7-2 vote, the Court upheld the then prevalent lethal injection drug protocol. This protocol is no longer available, however, because it relied on a drug whose manufacturer, responding to pressure from anti-death penalty groups, no longer permits its use for executions. This is why Oklahoma is using a new drug—midazolam—to render the inmate unconscious prior to injecting a second drug to paralyze him and then a third to stop his heart.

“[L]et’s be honest about what’s going on here,” an obviously irritated Justice Alito said at oral argument today.

Executions could be carried out painlessly…. Now, this Court has held that the death penalty is constitutional. It’s controversial as a constitutional matter. It certainly is controversial as a policy matter. Those who oppose the death penalty are
free to try to persuade legislatures to abolish the death penalty. Some of those efforts have been successful. They’re free to ask this Court to overrule the death penalty. But until that occurs, is it appropriate for the judiciary to countenance what amounts to a guerilla war against the death penalty which consists of efforts to make it impossible for the States to obtain drugs that could be used to carry out capital punishment with little, if any, pain? And so the States are reduced to
using drugs like this one which give rise to disputes about whether, in fact, every possibility of pain is eliminated.

Justice Scalia soon jumped in:

I guess I would be more inclined to find that it was intolerable
if there was even some doubt about this drug when there was a perfectly safe other drug available. But the States have gone through two different drugs, and those drugs have been rendered unavailable by the abolitionist movement putting pressure on the companies that manufacture them so that the States cannot obtain those two other drugs. And now you want to come before the Court and say, well, this third drug is not 100 percent sure.
The reason it isn’t 100 percent sure is because the abolitionists have rendered it impossible to get the 100 percent sure drugs, and you think we should not view that as—as relevant to the decision that—that 
you’re putting before us?

When Justice Kennedy pressed the attorney challenging Oklahoma’s drug protocol about whether this reason for the state’s adoption of the controversial drug was relevant to the Court’s analysis, the lawyer responded that it was not. The existence or non-existence of alternatives should not be relevant to the Court’s analysis of any given method of execution.

The discussion then turned in a predictable direction: toward what exactly those potential alternatives might be. It was at this point that the firing squads appeared.

Oklahoma and Utah currently have laws that reinstate the firing squad if lethal injection is no longer available. (The Utah law was just passed in March.)

Justice Sotomayor alluded to the possibility of firing squads coming back, which caused Justice Ginsburg to ask whether death by firing squad causes pain. When the lawyer said she did not know, Chief Justice Roberts jumped in:

Do you have a guess? I mean, is there a reason that the States moved progressively to what I understand to be more humane methods of execution? Hanging, firing squad, electric chair, death ­­ you know, gas chamber?… [Y]ou’re not suggesting that those other methods are preferable to the method in this case, are you?

Later in oral argument, when Justice Kagan compared the injection of one of the drugs in the lethal injection protocol to being burned alive—a method of execution that she said everyone agreed would violate the Eighth Amendment—Justice Alito offered a particularly macabre hypothetical: “If an anesthesiologist rendered a person completely unconscious, and then the person was burned alive, would that be cruel and unusual punishment?” After the lawyer said that this might not be unconstitutional, Justice Alito declared her response “incredible.”

This kind of discussion of the constitutional status of methods of execution commonly used in the past is familiar terrain for the Court in these types of challenges.

In 2008, at oral argument in the Baze case, the Justices also considered whether alternatives to lethal injection would still be constitutional. Justice Scalia made clear where he stood on the issue when he felt the challengers were pushing their constitutional argument too far:

Justice Scalia: Where does that come from, that you must find the method of execution that causes the least pain? We have approved electrocution, we have approved death by firing squad. I expect both of those have more possibilities of painful death than the protocol here. Where does this come from that in the execution of a person who has been convicted of killing people we must choose the least painful method possible? Is that somewhere in our Constitution?

Then there was an exchange between Justice Alito and Donald Verrilli (at this point a partner in the law firm Jenner & Block; he would be appointed Solicitor General in 2011). Verrilli was representing Baze, the death row inmate who was challenging Kentucky’s lethal injection drug protocol.

Justice Alito: Isn’t your position that every form of execution that has ever been used in the United States, if it were to be used today, would violate the Eighth Amendment?

Mr. Verrilli: No.

Justice Alito: Well, which form that’s been used at some time in an execution would not violate?

Mr. Verrilli: We would have to suggest it to the test that we are advocating, which it would… whether there is a risk of torturous pain.

Justice Scalia: Hanging certainly would, right?

Mr. Verrilli Jr.: Well, it would have to be subjected to the test.

Justice Scalia: Is that a hard question? Is that a hard question, whether hanging would, whether you had experts who understood the dropweight, you know, that was enough that it would break the neck?

Mr. Verrilli Jr.: If there is a risk of torturous pain and if there are readily available alternatives that could obviate the risk, then any significant risk—

Justice Scalia: Hanging’s no good. What about electrocution?

Mr. Verrilli Jr.: –Well, it would depend. The argument about electrocution, Justice Scalia, is whether or not it is painless, and that was its point when it was enacted, that it would be a painless form of death.

Justice Scalia: It has to be, it has to be painless?

Mr. Verrilli Jr.: It does not, but that was its point, and I think one would have to subject it to the test to see whether it inflicts severe pain that is readily avoidable by an alternative.

Justice Alito: You have no doubt that the three judge protocol that Kentucky is using violates the Eighth Amendment, but you really cannot express a judgment about any of the other methods that has ever been used?

With two states willing to revive death by firing squad if lethal injections are struck down by the courts, the question of whether commonly used past methods of execution would be constitutional today has become much less hypothetical.

In the 2008 Baze decision, Chief Justice Roberts wrote for the majority a fascinating passage that seems particularly relevant in light of the current situation, in which some states might be willing to revive discarded methods of execution if they can no longer use lethal injection.

Throughout our history, whenever a method of execution has been challenged in this Court as cruel and unusual, the Court has rejected the challenge. Our society has nonetheless steadily
moved to more humane methods of carrying out capital punishment. The firing squad, hanging, the electric chair, and the gas chamber have each in turn given way to more humane methods, culminating in today’s consensus on lethal injection. The broad framework of the Eighth Amendment has accommodated this progress toward more humane methods of execution, and our approval of a particular method in the past has not precluded legislatures from taking the steps they deem appropriate, in light of new developments, to ensure humane capital punishment. There is no reason to suppose that today’s decision will be any different.

Roberts describes a dynamic by which the Court has read the Eighth Amendment in such a way as to give state legislatures broad latitude in choosing their methods of execution. And states have done their part to move American society toward more human methods of execution. But the challengers to Oklahoma’s lethal injection drug protocol have an argument that Oklahoma is no longer holding up its end of the bargain. Oklahoma’s procedure is arguably less humane that the three-drug protocol it replaced, which is the one that the Court upheld in Baze. Whether the risk of pain in the new protocol is unconstitutional will be debated; but it seems clear that the risk of pain was lower with the previous method. The reason for this backtracking is not some coarsening of sensibilities in Oklahoma (or the various other states that use this same protocol). It is the difficulty in procuring drugs for the execution because drug manufacturers are refusing to allow their drugs to be used for executions.

It seems unlikely that a majority of the Court will strike down Oklahoma’s drug protocol. There is enough dispute about the risks of pain involved with this method of execution that the Baze holding will probably serve to allow the Court to do what it has always done in these challenges, and reject it. But states are having more and more difficulty in securing drugs for executions. And whether the pressure comes from drug companies or from the Court, there is a possibility that lethal injection will no longer be a feasible option for executions. Might this possibility affect the justices ruling in the current challenge to Oklahoma’s lethal injection protocol? If lethal injections are no longer feasible, and we see a revival of discarded methods of execution, what will the Court do when these methods are challenged as violating the Eighth Amendment?

Oral Arguments in the Same-Sex Marriage Cases—What Did We Learn?

What did we learn from yesterday’s oral arguments in the historic same-sex marriage cases? The basic take-away seems to be that the issue looks a lot harder inside the Supreme Court than it does outside. The run of success for the cause of same-sex marriage—in state legislatures and referenda, in state courts and the lower federal courts, and in opinion polls—has given a sense of inevitability to the issue. And it has seemed reasonable to assume that the Supreme Court would surely join this powerful trend, issuing a landmark ruling that will only become more celebrated over time.

Nothing that occurred yesterday necessarily upsets this assumption. It is still more likely than not that in late June we will have a Court ruling striking down bans on same-sex marriage nationwide. But what we did not get was the kind of marriage-equality victory parade we have seen playing out in the mainstream press and in many of the lower federal courts. To read the commentary surrounding the Supreme Court’s decision to let stand federal appeals court decisions striking down same-sex marriage bans or Judge Posner’s scathing dismissal of the case against same-sex marriage, one feels that the arguments on one side of the debate are simply dissolving before our eyes.

The situation looked quite different inside the Supreme Court yesterday. From the perspective of the conservative justices on the Court, perfectly good reasons remain for the Court to stay its hand and allow the issue to continue to play out at the state level. The issue “is not whether there should be same­sex marriage,” emphasized Justice Scalia, “but who should decide the point.” To this question of “who decides?” Mary Bonauto, the lawyer for the challengers to the same-sex marriage ban, concluded her argument with the following response: “It’s not about the Court versus the States. It’s about the individual making the choice to marry and with whom to marry, or the government.”

I sense that one of the dynamics playing out in the Court yesterday was that even if Justice Kennedy knows that he is going to side with the challengers, he wants to emphasize the difficulty of the issue. This may help to protect the perceived legitimacy of the Court when the eventual ruling comes from a divided Court, probably in a 5-4 break. It also draws attention to Justice Kennedy himself. It personalizes the issue. The story is less about the inevitability of the issue due to the political, legal, and cultural transformation taking place and more about the struggle of a justice—a story Kennedy has drawn attention to in the past.

Predicting the Winner in Obergefell v. Hodges, the Same-Sex Marriage Cases

The Supreme Court heard oral argument in the historic case of Obergefell v. Hodges, the same-sex marriage cases, which ask two questions:  1) Does the Fourteenth Amendment require a state to license a marriage between two people of the same sex?, and 2) Does the Fourteenth Amendment require a state to recognize a marriage between two people of the same sex when their marriage was lawfully licensed and performed out-of-state?

Figure 1

Slide2

On the first question, the total question count favors the Petitioners (Obergefell), as shown in Figure 1.  The Court asked the Respondents 19 more questions than it asked the Petitioners’ side (including the Solicitor General as amicus).

The question count by Justice , however, provides the real story.  As expected, the Justices appear to be divided along ideological lines.  The 4 liberal Justices asked far more questions to the Respondents, suggesting a leaning to the Petitioners: Ginsburg (+5), Breyer (+15), Sotomayor (+8), and Kagan (+27).  Justice Kagan asked an unusually high number of questions (28) to the Respondents, but only 1 to the Petitioners’ side.  Her 27-question differential is essentially responsible for the difference in the total question count above.

By contrast, 3 conservative Justices asked far more questions to the Petitioners, which suggests a leaning to the Respondents: Roberts (+8), Scalia (+12), and Alito (+19).  Justice Thomas asked no questions, but one can predict he would join this conservative bloc.

So how will Justice Kennedy, the swing vote, decide the first issue?  He asked 2 more questions to the Respondents (8 questions total compared to 6 questions for the Petitioners’ side, including the Solicitor General as amicus in support of the Petitioners).  It’s a slim margin, but it’s noteworthy that Justice Kennedy asked the Petitioners and the SG only 3 questions each, but the Respondents 8 questions.  This is what I call an “asymmetrical case” with 2 lawyers on one side and 1 lawyer on the other side.  One might expect the presence of the second lawyer on one side might inflate the question count somewhat, given that the Justices might want to ask similar questions to both attorneys on one side–thereby inflating that side’s question count.  In this case, however, the total number of questions asked by Justice Kennedy to the Petitioners and SG is still lower than the number he asked the Respondents.

Based on these numbers, I predict a 5-4 victory for the Petitioners on the first issue, with Justice Kennedy in the majority.  The Petitioners argued that the Fourteenth Amendment requires a state to license a marriage between two people of the same sex.

Figure 2.

Slide1

On the second question, the total question count slightly favors the Petitioners.  The Court asked the Respondents 4 more questions than it asked the Petitioners, as shown in Figure 2 above.  But, again, the real story is the question count by Justice, which shows the same ideological breakdown among Justices as in the first issue, though with much smaller margins (the Justices didn’t ask many questions related to the second issue).  The 4 liberal Justices asked the Respondents more questions: Ginsburg (+1), Breyer (+4), Sotomayor (+7), and Kagan (+2).  Meanwhile, 3 conservative Justices asked the Petitioners more questions: Roberts (+1), Scalia (+1), and Alito (+7).

Justice Kennedy asked only 1 question, and it was to the Petitioners.  Does that suggest Justice Kennedy is leaning to the Respondents?  Possibly, but it’s an even slimmer reed to base a prediction than the 2-question margin in the first issue.  Of course, if the Court ruled in favor of the Petitioners on the first issue, it would not even be necessary to decide the second issue.

Given the volume of questions on the first issue, I see the Court deciding the case on the first issue.  The question count by Justice is close.  But it favors slightly the Petitioners.  I’ll go with a victory for the Petitioners on the first issue or, alternatively, on the second issue.

Oyez Covers Same-Sex Marriage Arguments

Today, the U.S. Supreme Court hears oral arguments in Obergefell v. Hodges, a consolidation of cases that ask the Court to consider two key questions about same-sex marriage:

Is there a constitutional right to same-sex marriage? And are states required to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states?

Because of the landmark nature of this case, the Supreme Court has agreed to release audio of oral argument later this same day. You can expect Part I of arguments just after 12:30 PM EST, and Part II just after 2:00 PM EST, both on the Oyez case page.

The Court has allotted 2.5 hours for argument, which is significantly more than the usual one hour. If you’re interested in the highlights and don’t have the time/ability to listen to the full argument, we’re going to live tweet the arguments as we listen to them as soon as they’re posted. Follow us on Twitter (@Oyez), or visit our profile to see our tweets, no Twitter account necessary.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the people involved in the case we’ll be mentioning throughout argument:

The Justices:
Chief Justice Roberts
Justice Scalia
Justice Kennedy
Justice Thomas
Justice Ginsburg
Justice Breyer
Justice Alito
Justice Sotomayor
Justice Kagan

Advocates for the petitioners (families suing the states):
Mary L. Bonauto
Douglas Hallward-Driemeier

Advocates for the respondents (states defending same-sex marriage bans):
John J. Bursch
Joseph F. Whalen

Solicitor General for the United States, supporting the petitioners
Donald B. Verrilli, Jr.

Questions about the case? Tweet us and we’ll do our best to respond quickly.

Predicting the Winners in EPA Cases

Sorry, it’s taken me awhile to analyze the Michigan v. EPA, which the Supreme Court heard back on March 25.  The case asks whether the Environmental Protection Agency unreasonably refused to consider costs in determining whether it is appropriate to regulate hazardous air pollutants emitted by electric utilities.  I predict a 5-4 decision in favor of the Petitioners.

Figure 1.

Slide2

As Figure 1 shows, the total question count favors slightly the Petitioners (Michigan), whose side received 5 fewer questions than the Respondents (EPA/SG and Industry Respondents).

The question count by Justice suggests a split along ideological lines. Four conservative Justices asked more questions to the Respondent’s (EPA) side: Roberts (+16), Scalia (+4), Kennedy (+1), and Alito (-8).  Four liberal Justices asked the Petitioners (Michigan) more questions: Ginsburg (+2), Breyer (+3), Sotomayor (+7), and Kagan (+9).  The differential for Justice Kennedy is just one question, so he appears to be the swing vote again!  Based on these numbers, I will go with a victory for the Petitioners.

Weekly Roundup – April 24, 2015

Did you miss your Supreme Court news this week? Let our Weekly Roundup help. (To stay on top of the latest Supreme Court happenings, follow ISCOTUS on Twitter.)

Following a similar decision last month involving the state of Alabama, the Supreme Court on Monday threw out a North Carolina redistricting ruling, forcing a lower court review.

In a 6-3 Fourth Amendment decision on Tuesday, the Court ruled that police officers may not extend the duration of traffic stops to wait for drug sniffing dogs.

It just got easier to sue the government, as the Court on Wednesday ruled that plaintiffs can waive the normal deadlines for filing a suit if they have good reason for a delay.

California raisin farmers appeared to have a good day at the Court on Wednesday, petitioning for the repeal of a New Deal law which they call an “illegal taking” under the Fifth Amendment.

Scholars from Dartmouth and Virginia have concluded from a computer-driven analysis of decisions that Supreme Court justices have grown “more long-winded and grumpier” in recent years.

With the Supreme Court facing the issue next week, The Washington Post reports on how a young county clerk named Anthony Kennedy issued the first same-sex marriage license 40 years ago.

In the New Republic, Brianne Gorod uses the Court’s Fourth Amendment decision in Riley v. California to argue that the Constitution trumps any state’s ban on same-sex marriage.

At SCOTUSblog, Amy Howe provides a reporter’s guide to covering the same-sex marriage cases next week, offering some behind-the-scenes looks at the Court in the process.

Predicting the Winner in Horne v. Dept. of Agriculture

The Supreme Court heard oral argument on Wednesday in Horne v. Department of Agriculture, which asks (1) whether the government’s “categorical duty” under the Fifth Amendment to pay just compensation when it “physically takes possession of an interest in property,” Arkansas Game & Fish Comm’n v. United States, applies only to real property and not to personal property; (2) whether the government may avoid the categorical duty to pay just compensation for a physical taking of property by reserving to the property owner a contingent interest in a portion of the value of the property, set at the government’s discretion; and (3) whether a governmental mandate to relinquish specific, identifiable property as a “condition” on permission to engage in commerce effects a per se taking.

I predict that the Court will split in a 5-4 decision along ideological lines with the key vote being–no surprise–Justice Kennedy.

Slide1

As Figure 1 indicates, the total question count favors the Petitioner (Horne), who received 16 fewer questions than Respondent (SG).  However, that number is somewhat deceptive because Justice Scalia alone was effectively responsible for the disparity in questions.  Justice Scalia asked the SG 27 questions, an unusually high number of questions and 23 more than he asked the Petitioner.

The question count by individual Justice suggests an ideological split.  Five Justices asked the Petitioner more questions, which suggests a leaning to the Respondent (SG): Kennedy (+1), Ginsburg (+6), Breyer (+5), Sotomayor (+10), and Kagan (+2).  But notice that Justice Kennedy asked the Petitioner only one more question than he asked the SG–that’s a virtual tie, given that one of Kennedy’s question to Petitioner was asked during rebuttal simply to have the Petitioner finish his remaining points.

Three Justices asked the SG more questions, which suggests a leaning to the Petitioner: Roberts (+11), Scalia (+23), and Alito (+6).

So how will Justice Kennedy vote?  It’s a toss-up, but I will go with a win for the Petitioner with a 5-Justice conservative majority.

Predicting the Winner in McFadden v. US

The Supreme Court heard oral argument in one case on Tuesday, McFadden v. U.S., which asks whether, to convict a defendant of distribution of a controlled substance analogue – a substance with a chemical structure that is “substantially similar” to a schedule I or II drug and has a “substantially similar” effect on the user (or is believed or represented by the defendant to have such a similar effect) – the government must prove that the defendant knew that the substance constituted a controlled substance analogue, as held by the Second, Seventh, and Eighth Circuits, but rejected by the Fourth and Fifth Circuits.  I predict a victory for the Petitioner.

Slide1

As Figure 1 indicates, the total question count slightly favors the Petitioner (McFadden). The Court asked the Respondent (Solicitor General) 6 more questions.  Likewise, the count by individual Justice slightly favors the Respondent. Five Justices asked the SG more questions: Roberts (+5), Ginsburg (+2), Breyer (+9), Alito (+4), and Sotomayor (+2).  Three Justices asked the Petitioner more questions: Scalia (+9), Kennedy (+4), and Kagan (+3).

Although the differences are slight, I’ll go with the Petitioner for the win.

Predicting the Winner in Johnson v. US

The Supreme Court heard one oral argument on Monday in Johnson v. United States, which asks whether mere possession of a short-barreled shotgun should be treated as a violent felony under the Armed Career Criminal Act.  This is a very difficult case to predict.

Slide1

As Figure 1 indicates, the total question count is very close: The Court asked the Petitioner 58 questions and the Respondent 57 questions–a virtual tie.

The question count by Justice is also very close.  Four Justices asked the Petitioner (Johnson) more questions, which suggests a leaning to the Solicitor General: Justices Kennedy (+8), Ginsburg (+1), Alito (+13), and Kagan (+4).  Three Justices asked the Solicitor General more questions, which suggests a leaning to the Petitioner (Johnson): Chief Justice Roberts (+9), Justices Scalia (+14), and Breyer (+1).  Justices Sotomayor (cannot tell if she was recused) and Thomas asked no questions.

This is a toss-up.  But I’m going with a win for the Solicitor General, given the slight edge in Justices.