My Record in Predicting Supreme Court Decisions: Still Perfect

As 2014 draws to a close, the Supreme Court has finished with its announcement of decisions for this year.  The Court issued opinions in 2 cases this week: (i) affirming (8-1) the decision in Heien v. North Carolina that reasonable mistakes about the law by police officers do not violate the Fourth Amendment and (ii) reversing (5-4) the decision in Dart Cherokee Basin Operating Co. v. Owens and holding that a notice of removal does not need evidentiary support, only a plausible allegation that the amount in controversy exceeds the state threshold.

After the oral argument, I found both decisions hard to predict based on the question counts.  But I’m happy to report my predictions in both Heien and Dart Cherokee were right.

So far, I’ve correctly predicted the outcomes in all 4 cases the Supreme Court has decided this Term.  To be honest, I’m surprised by the perfect score.  But I’ll take it because I know there are many other cases this Term I found very difficult to predict.

For the rest of my predictions, click here.

The Justices, Their Papers, and the Claims of History

Why do we care about what goes on behind closed doors at the Supreme Court? Do the justices have some sort of responsibility to ensure that the American people learn, at some point, the “inside” story of the Court? A recent article in the New Yorker by Jill Lepore on the theft of some of Justice Frankfurter’s papers, along with a provocative response by Michael Dorf, raise yet again these perennial questions.

We can all agree that there is something of value in getting behind the scenes at the Supreme Court. Journalists and historians delve into the available records and resources—correspondence, unpublished opinions, conference notes, interviews with justices and clerks—to try to recreate what happened. As a result of these investigative forays, today we have extensive knowledge of what was happening within the Court as the justices deliberated over many of the Court’s most significant decisions. Most recently, Joan Biskupic’s book on Justice Sotomayor made news with her revelation that Justice Sotomayor had written a sharp dissent in an affirmative action case that was never published when some of the justices, apparently influenced by Sotomayor’s dissent, switched sides.

But the question remains: what exactly is the value of these revelations? Historians and reporters don’t typically concern themselves with this question. These are important events, and their job is to find out as much about them as possible. Thus we lament justices who restrict access to their papers or, worse, justices who destroy their papers. But the question becomes more difficult when we shift perspective from that of the historian or journalist to that of the Supreme Court justice. Do the justices have a special responsibility to preserve the records pertaining to their work? Should we have laws that require them to do so, as we do in other areas of government? Professor Dorf raises the legitimate point that in order to determine whether this responsibility really exists and how far it should go requires an assessment of the value of these behind-the-scenes stories.

I agree with Dorf that this issue is harder than we might assume. To simply claim that the justices have a responsibility to “history” feels intuitively gratifying, but it does not resolve the issue. Yet I think that Dorf provides too narrow an assessment of how we might measure the value of materials relating to the inner workings of the Court.

Dorf concludes that the value of increased knowledge of the internal workings of the Court “is more in the nature of a claim of art than it is about making democracy function or anything so practical.” The papers of the justices, he writes, only rarely “contain documents that are relevant to some current controversy.”

We don’t need to know what Jackson said to Frankfurter or vice-versa to learn any useful lessons about the cases they decided or about interpersonal relations more broadly. Our interest (for those of us who have an interest in such matters) stems entirely from the fact that we find the matters inherently interesting….

We can understand the broad picture of the work of the Supreme Court and its relation to other institutions without access to the Justices’ papers. But for those who find history interesting, the minutiae of the decisionmaking process and even the behind-the-scenes gossip have inherent value. We can appreciate history in the way we appreciate art—for its own sake.

This goes too far, I believe. The supposed “lessons” of history to present-day dilemmas are invariably overstated, but there is value in knowledge about the ways in which the fundamental institutions of our society function. When it comes to the U.S. Supreme Court, its written opinions give us only a partial window into how it operates. Accounts of the Court’s decisionmaking process provide additional insight. Details about how the Court actually functioned at some past point, about how the justices came to their most important decisions, is surely of some considerable value in a constitutional democracy. It deepens our understanding of what the Court did in the past, what it does today, and what it might do tomorrow.

Consider, for example, where our understanding of the Court would be without knowing that prior to the 1940s the norm within the Court was for the justices to suppress dissents in all but the most important of cases. The justices believed that in most cases the value of an individual dissent did not outweigh the value of presenting an image of a unified Court to the public. The fact that the high rates of consensus in the Court during much of its history was a product of a norm and not actual consensus tells us something vitally important about the Court and the issues it confronted. It changes our understanding of some of the unanimous opinions that came in this period, and it changes out understanding of those relatively rare dissenting opinions of the period. It also changes our understanding of the Court we have had since the 1940s, when dissenting opinions have become commonplace.

Or consider our quite thorough understanding of what happened behind the scenes in the Brown decision. Behind the united front of Chief Justice Warren’s unanimous opinion were years of false starts, cajoling, and compromise. Although I would not look to the justices’ deliberations to learn something about the problem of racial segregation in schools today, I do believe that this seminal moment reveals something about how a fundamentally conservative institution could, for a time, stand at the vanguard of one of the nation’s most important social revolutions. Bruce Ackerman’s most recent book draws on the justices’ papers to identify several moments when the Warren Court almost took some major doctrinal leap in the name of the civil rights revolution, only to pull back at the last minute for one reason or another. All of this surely has some value for those who today are considering whether the Supreme Court might advance their cause of choice.

None of this resolves the very difficult question of how far the justices’ responsibility to history, legal or otherwise, goes when it comes to preserving and making accessible their papers. My goal here is simply to offer some thoughts as to how this issue should be approached. Dorf is surely right to argue that “history’s” claim to the details of the justices’ decisionmaking process cannot serve as a blanket call for transparency. But neither can this claim be reduced to the level of Supreme Court voyeurism. When historians and journalists recreate the inner workings of the Supreme Court, they are serving the legitimate claim of a democratic citizenry for knowledge about this critically important institution.

Weekly Roundup – December 12, 2014

Did you miss your Supreme Court news this week? Let our Weekly Roundup help. (To stay on top of the latest Supreme Court happenings, follow ISCOTUS on Twitter.)

Why the Supreme Court might agree to hear a same-sex marriage case after all.

In January, the Court will hear a case concerning the constitutionality of a Massachusetts ordinance banning “aggressive begging.”

The Court’s decision not to intervene in BP’s gulf spill legal war could increase the company’s liability to billions more than anticipated.

The Court ruled on Tuesday that Amazon does not have to pay warehouse workers for time spent waiting to go through security screenings.

Bobby Chen—who, without a lawyer, persuaded the Court to hear his case—has gone missing.

The Justices appeared split along ideological lines in Wednesday’s U.S. v. Wong oral argument.

Linda Greenhouse reflects on the Court and rights for pregnant workers.

An in-depth Reuters report looks at the small, elite group of lawyers who wield outsize influence at the Supreme Court.

Predicting the Winners in US v. Wong and US v. June

The Supreme Court heard oral argument in two cases on Wednesday, both involving whether equitable tolling applies to claims against the federal government under the Federal Tort Claims Act. I’m predicting the winners of the Supreme Court cases based on the number of questions asked during oral argument. For more about this method, see my post on last Term’s Aereo case.  For all of my predictions this Term, click here.

U.S. v. Wong asks whether the six-month time bar for filing suit in federal court under the Federal Tort Claims Act, 28 U.S.C. § 2401(b), is subject to equitable tolling.

The Court asked the Respondent (Wong) 28 questions, 11 fewer than asked of the Petitioner (Solicitor General). The question disparity suggests a win for the Respondent, who argued for affirming the Ninth Circuit’s decision that the statute of limitations under the Federal Tort Claims Act is not jurisdictional and equitable tolling may be applied to it.

However, the picture gets more complicated looking at the question count per Justice. There’s a possible split along ideological lines. Chief Justice Robert and Justice Kennedy asked 8 and 4 questions to the Respondent (Wong), respectively, but no question to the Petitioner (Solicitor General). Justice Alito asked one more question to the Respondent. On the other hand, Justices Ginsburg and Kagan asked 7 and 10 more questions to the Petitioner, respectively. Justices Breyer and Sotomayor each asked 2 more questions to the Petitioner. Defying the ideological pattern, Justice Scalia asked 3 more questions to the Petitioner. Although 5 Justices asked the Petitioner more questions (suggesting a win for the Respondent), it is not clear whether Justice Scalia’s questions indicate a leaning to the Respondent’s side. In U.S. v. June, the companion case argued afterwards (see below), Justice Scalia asked more questions to the Respondent’s side.

The overall and individual question counts suggest a close case, probably a 5-4 decision. Justice Kennedy may be the swing vote, and his questions might suggest a leaning to the Petitioner (Solicitor General). However, I will stick with the overall question count and predict a win for the Respondent (Wong).

Figure 1.

Lee - 12.10.14 US v Wong

The second case, U.S. v. June, asks whether the two-year time limit for filing an administrative claim with the appropriate federal agency under the Federal Tort Claims Act, 28 U.S.C. § 2401(b), is subject to equitable tolling.

This question count again favored the Respondent. The Court asked the Respondent (June) 17 questions, 9 fewer than asked of the Petitioner (Solicitor General). The overall question disparity suggests a win for the Respondent, who argued for affirming the Ninth Circuit’s decision.

However, just as in U.S. v. Wong, the picture gets more complicated looking at the question count per Justice. Chief Justice Roberts again asked the Respondent more questions (+4). Justices Ginsburg, Breyer, and Kagan again asked the Petitioner more questions (+4, +5, +4, respectively). Several Justices asked more questions to the other side compared to the side they asked more questions in Wong: Justices Scalia and Sotomayor asked the Respondent more questions (+2 and +1, respectively); and Justice Kennedy asked the Petitioner more questions (+1). Justices Thomas and Alito asked no questions. The pattern still suggests a possible ideological split. As in Wong, I will stick with the overall question count and predict a win for the Respondent (June).

Figure 2.

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My Perfect Record in Predicting Supreme Court Cases–So Far

On Tuesday, the Supreme Court handed down its first two decisions of the Term.  As SCOTUSblog reports, the Court reversed the 9th Circuit decision regarding overtime pay in Integrity Staffing Solutions v. Busk and affirmed the 8th Circuit’s decision regarding Federal Rule of Evidence 606(b)’s bar on juror-related evidence in Warger v. Shauers.  Both decisions were unanimous.

I correctly predicted the outcome in both cases.  Based on the large disparity of questions between the parties during oral argument, I thought both cases were very easy cases to predict–as you can see here.  Of course, it’s still early in the Term, and I don’t expect  my record in making predictions to remain perfect.  But, for now, I’ll take it!

We’ll be keeping the tally on this page during the Term.

Predicting the Winners in Gelboim v. Bank of America and ADOR v. CSX

The Supreme Court heard oral argument in two fairly technical cases on Tuesday, one involving the appeal of a dismissal of an action that has been consolidated with other actions that are still ongoing and the other involving the the Railroad Revitalization and Regulatory Reform Act of 1976.  Indeed, this week, the Court is knee deep in some very technical and complex areas of law. I’m predicting the winners of the Supreme Court cases based on the number of questions asked during oral argument. For more about this method, see my post on last Term’s Aereo case. For all of my predictions this Term, click here.

The first case, Gelboim v. Bank of America Corporation, asks whether and in what circumstances the dismissal of an action that has been consolidated with other suits is immediately appealable.

Slide1

This case is easy to predict.  As Figure 1 shows, the Court asked the Petitioner (Gelboim) 59 questions, 19 more than asked of the Respondent (Bank of America). The large disparity in questions indicates a victory for the Respondent, which argued that 28 U.S.C. § 1291 “bars an immediate appeal as of right when one constituent in a consolidated district-court action [in a Multi-District Litigation] is dismissed from ongoing pretrial proceedings”as the Second Circuit held below.

The second case, Alabama Department of Revenue v. CSX Transportation, Inc., asks (1) Whether a state “discriminates against a rail carrier” in violation of 49 U.S.C. § 11501(b)(4) when the state generally requires commercial and industrial businesses, including rail carriers, to pay a sales-and-use tax but grants exemptions from the tax to the railroads’ competitors; and (2) whether, in resolving a claim of unlawful tax discrimination under 49 U.S.C. § 11501(b)(4), a court should consider other aspects of the state’s tax scheme rather than focusing solely on the challenged tax provision.

This case is more difficult to predict, given the two questions presented as well as the Solicitor General’s third position supporting neither party.  The SG agreed with the Respondent that the proper comparison to determine discrimination against a rail carrier is compared to other competitors, but agreed with the Petitioner that “a state can justify a challenged tax’s differential treatment of railroads by pointing to an alternative and comparable tax that applies to the comparison class but not to railroads.”

If the SG were not involved, then I’d give the win to the Respondent (CSX), which was asked 9 fewer questions than the Petitioner, as shown by Figure 2 below.  Since the SG agreed with the Respondent on the comparison issue, I predict a victory for the Respondent on that issue. But what about the justification issue—whose view will prevail? It’s too hard to say from just the number of questions, especially given that the Solicitor General received only 10 minutes as an amicus. But if I had to make a prediction on the second issue, I’ll go with the SG.  So it’s a partial win for CSX.

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Predicting the Winners in Direct Marketing v. Brohl and DOT v. AAR

The Supreme Court heard oral argument in two fairly technical cases on Monday, one involving the Tax Injunction Act and the other involving the Passenger Rail Investment and Improvement Act of 2008. I’m predicting the winners of the Supreme Court cases based on the number of questions asked during oral argument. For more about this method, see my post on last Term’s Aereo case.  For all of my predictions this Term, click here.

The first case, Direct Marketing Association v. Brohl, asks whether the Tax Injunction Act, which provides that “[t]he district courts shall not enjoin, suspend or restrain the assessment, levy or collection of any tax under State law where a plain, speedy and efficient remedy may be had in the courts of such State,” bars federal court jurisdiction over a suit brought by non-taxpayers to enjoin the informational notice and reporting requirements of a state law that neither imposes a tax, nor requires the collection of a tax, but serves only as a secondary aspect of state tax administration.

This case is easy to predict. The Court asked the Petitioner only 36 questions and the Respondent 54 questions, a differential of 18 questions. The disparity in questions strongly suggests a win for the Petitioner (Direct Marketing Association).

Figure 1.

Lee - 12.8.14 Direct Marketing v Brohl

The second case, Department of Transportation v. Association of American Railroads, asks whether Section 207 of the Passenger Rail Investment and Improvement Act of 2008, which requires the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) and Amtrak to “jointly . . . develop” the metrics and standards for Amtrak’s performance that will be used in part to determine whether the Surface Transportation Board (STB) will investigate a freight railroad for failing to provide the preference for Amtrak’s passenger trains that is required by federal law, and provides for the STB to appoint an arbitrator if the FRA and Amtrak cannot agree on the metrics and standards within 180 days, effects an unconstitutional delegation of legislative power to a private entity.

This case is closer, but I predict a win for the Respondent (Association of American Railroads). The Court asked the Petitioner 49 questions, 6 more than asked of the Respondent. The Justices appear to be divided along ideological lines. Three Justices asked the Petitioner more questions: Roberts (+13), Scalia (+9), and Kennedy (+5). Four Justices asked the Respondent more questions: Ginsburg (+3), Breyer (+12), Sotomayor (+6), and Kagan (+2). Justice Alito asked both sides one question, and Justice Thomas asked no questions. If the ideological pattern holds, I expect Justices Alito and Thomas to side with the Respondent as well.

Figure 2.

Lee - 12.8.14 DOT v AAR

Why Does Everyone Want the Supreme Court to Take a Same-Sex Marriage Case?

Red and blue Americans agree on precious little, but there is one thing that seems to be on every politician’s Christmas list this season: Supreme Court review of a same-sex marriage case.

Everyone, it seems, is asking the Court to take on the issue. Proponents of same-sex marriage are confident that they now have the five votes they need to strike down prohibitions on same-sex marriage nationwide. It was for this reason that even the winners in the slew of federal appeals court decisions recognizing a right to same-sex marriage joined the losers in asking the Court to grant certiorari. For those who believe prohibitions on same-sex marriage to be a violation of fundamental constitutional principles, a victory at the Supreme Court will be the culminating moment in a long legal struggle.

But the more interesting recent development has been the support for Supreme Court review by those who claim to oppose a constitutional right to same-sex marriage. States that have seen their marriage bans struck down in federal district courts are bypassing available appeals and asking the Supreme Court to take their case. The winners in the recent Sixth Circuit case upholding same-sex marriage bans are joining the losers in asking for Supreme Court review.

What’s going on here? Surely the two sides cannot be equally confident of victory in the High Court. A more likely explanation is that opponents of same-sex marriage simply want the issue taken off their hands. There are ever-decreasing political benefits to be gained from arguing against same-sex these days. Most conservatives probably want the Supreme Court to take the issue and to strike down marriage bans, as they are sure to do, sooner or later. This will give opponents one more opportunity to attack the liberal wing of the Supreme Court (more political points to be scored there than by attacking gay rights), and it will remove from the political agenda an issue that is becoming a growing liability for conservatives. Thank you Supreme Court.

Weekly Roundup – December 5, 2014

Did you miss your Supreme Court news this week? Let our Weekly Roundup help. (To stay on top of the latest Supreme Court happenings, follow ISCOTUS on Twitter.)

After oral arguments in Elonis v. US, David Savage concludes the Court is unlikely to extend new speech protections to people who post threatening messages on Facebook and other social media.

Chief Justice Roberts quoted Eminem during the course of the Facebook threat case, but we could only read about it instead of hearing it. ISCOTUS director Chris Schmidt used this case to argue for the immediate release of oral argument audio.

The same-sex marriage cases spark new interest in a forgotten 1958 First Amendment decision—the first to directly impact gay rights.

On Wednesday, in a case brought by a UPS worker who was forced into unpaid leave when she became pregnant, the Court struggled to determine what it meant to treat pregnant workers equal to other, similarly situated workers.

Lyle Denniston examines whether the Supreme Court’s future will be an election issue in 2016.

How big is the Supreme Court threat to Obamacare? Very big, according to Micahel Hiltzik in the LA Times.

Noah Feldman on the Supreme Court, a bank robber, and a heart attack.

The two Supreme Court cases that made it nearly impossible to indict a police officer.

Congress again considers cameras in the Supreme Court and other federal courts.

Predicting the Winners in Young v. UPS and Hana Financial v. Hana Bank

The Supreme Court heard oral argument in two cases on Wednesday, one involving the Pregnancy Discrimination Act and the other involving trademark law. I’m predicting the winners of the Supreme Court cases based on the number of questions asked during oral argument. For more about this method, see my post on last Term’s Aereo case.  For all of my predictions this Term, click here.

Young v. UPS asks whether, and in what circumstances, the Pregnancy Discrimination Act, 42 U.S.C. § 2000e(k), requires an employer that provides work accommodations to non-pregnant employees with work limitations to provide work accommodations to pregnant employees who are “similar in their ability or inability to work.”

This case is difficult to predict. The Court asked the Petitioner (Young) 28 questions and the Solicitor General (as amicus curiae supporting the Petitioner) 16 questions. The Court asked the Respondent (UPS) 42 questions, 2 fewer than the Petitioner’s side. However, that differential is almost negligible, given that in several instances I had to make judgment calls on how to count questions that were interrupted by the advocate or another Justice. In other words, the total number of questions asked per side was a virtual tie.

The question count per Justice provides a more interesting picture. Five Justices asked the Petitioner’s side (including the Solicitor General) more questions: Roberts (+2), Scalia (+14), Kennedy (+7), Breyer (+6), Sotomayor (+2).

Three Justices asked the Respondent more questions: Ginsburg (+13), Alito (+1), and Kagan (+15). In fact, Justices Ginsburg and Kagan asked 74% of all questions asked of the Respondent. Meanwhile, Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Kennedy asked the Respondent no questions, while Justices Scalia and Sotomayor asked only 1 question to the Respondent.

The pattern suggests a possible split along conservative and liberal lines. If I had to make a prediction based on these numbers, I would give a slight nod to the Respondent (UPS), which argued for an affirmance of the Fourth Circuit’s decision upholding the grant of summary judgment against the Petitioner on her claim under the Pregnancy Discrimination Act. But my confidence level is not high on this prediction.

Figure 1.

Lee - 12.3.14 Young v UPS

The second case, Hana Financial v. Hana Bank, asks whether the jury or the court determines whether use of an older trademark may be tacked to a newer one.

This case is much easier to predict. The Court asked the Petitioner 35 questions, 14 more than asked of the Respondent and the Solicitor General (supporting the Respondent) combined. The question disparity indicates a win for the Respondent (Hana Bank), which argued for an affirmance of the Ninth Circuit’s treatment of the issue of tacking as a question of fact for the jury. The Solicitor General generally supported that view. An affirmance appears to be likely.

Figure 2.

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