The answer might be in the affirmative according to the recent report by McKinsey Global Institute, titled “Globalization in Transition: The Future of Trade and Value Chains.” Here is a summary of its main findings.
- “Goods-producing value chains have grown less trade-intensive.”
- “Services play a growing and undervalued role in global value chains.”
- “Trade based on labor-cost arbitrage is declining in some value chains.”
- “Global value chains are growing more knowledge-intensive.”
- “Value chains are becoming more regional and less global.”
On its face, this report might seem to play the same gloomy tune as “slowbalization.” However, the McKinsey report does not equate this new phenomenon with the decline of globalization. On the contrary, it attributes the phenomenon as the economic maturation of emerging economies, such as China, India, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, which are “now consuming more of what they produce.” By 2030, developing countries’ consumption will exceed a half of global consumption. (more…)